中国土地利用構造と一般チューネン＝リカードモデル

• 小長谷 一之

  大阪市立大学経済研究所

• 守田 秀則

  香川大学工学部

• 大坪 国順

  環境庁国立環境研究所

書誌事項

タイトル別名

• Chinese Land Use Structure and the Generalized Thuenen-Ricardo Model.

抄録

Land use phenomena make up a important aspect of ‘environmental system’. LUCC (Land Use/Cover Change) is the joint core project of IGBP (International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme) and IHDP (International Human Dimensions Programme) under the international scheme of ICSU (International Council for Science). LU/GEC (Land Use for Global Environmental Conservation) is the largest LUCC-related project in Japan by NIES aiming at land use prediction models for Asia-Pacific region.<BR>The GT (Generalized Thunen)-model (小長谷1997a, b, 1998, Konagaya1997, 1998, 1999a, b, c) is the extension of traditional normative Thiinen model, the exact fundamental theory of land market, to be able to explain the aggregated land use ratios. This new model successfully give a exact theoretical interpretation to the intuitive picture of ‘movement of land use frontier’ such as deforestation or desertification, and enables us to predict the land use change in the future.小長谷・大坪・スンスン (1998『環境システム研究26』) predicts 2025 land use of Jawa and Kalimantan, and Konagaya (1999a, b), 小長谷・大坪 (1998『地球環境シンポジウム6』) analysed the land use of Sumatra with fairly good explanatory powers around R2=0.8.<BR>Today the regions with rapid economic growth and environmental destruction concentrate on China proper, thus, effective land use models on China are needed urgently. The Chinese land has a larger scale compared to one island region in South-East Asian countries, various physical conditions are necessary to be incorporated. Because the GT-model stated above based mainly on economic conditions and influences from cities (urban driving force variables), a newly extended model: GTR (Generalized Thiinen-Ricardo)-model integrating the urban driving force variables with the micro physical conditions in each site (on-site variables) is needed.<BR>This study analyzes and predicts the Chinese land use by the GTR-model. Southern China has been the center of agricultural production until now. However, the GTR-model predicts that urbanization and industrialization in the south region will drive agricultural land use to the north, making a drastic change in large land use structure of China in 2025.

収録刊行物

• 環境システム研究

  環境システム研究 27 513-520, 1999

  公益社団法人 土木学会

キーワード

• Land use modeling
• Chinese land use prediction
• LUCC (Land Use/Cover Change)
• GT (Generalized Thünen)-model
• GTR (Generalized Thünen=Ricardo)-model
• Rent Theory
• Urban driving force variables
• On-site variables

詳細情報

• CRID: 1390001204761954048
• NII論文ID: 130003774987
• DOI: 10.2208/proer1988.27.513
• ISSN: 18848117
• ISSN: 09150390
• 本文言語コード: ja
• データソース種別:
  • JaLC
  • Crossref
  • CiNii Articles
• 抄録ライセンスフラグ: 使用不可