コンジョイント分析を用いた野生動物問題に対する仮想的対策事前評価 Evaluation of Model Plans for a Wildlife Issue by Conjoint Analysis

Access this Article

Author(s)

Abstract

近年、野生動物による被害が急増し、社会問題の一つとなっている。本研究では、この様な野生動物問題に対する仮想的対策案事前評価として、滋賀県琵琶湖におけるカワウ問題を事例とし、カワウ問題対策における「漁業被害」「森林被害」「カワウの個体数」「税負担額」の各項目の重視度をコンジョイント分析により算出した。<BR>インターネットによる一般の方の認識調査の結果、「カワウの個体数」「税負担額」が重視された。しかし、これらの認識は異なる選好を示す認識集団の意見が混成された結果である事も明示された。そこで、このような認識の相違する場面で、どのような対策が支持されるかを対策案評価にて検討した。それにより「カワウの個体数」や「税負担額」の変動に対策案の支持率は影響を受けたが、極端な対策案は支持され難い結果が算出された。問題解決の困難さが仮想的対策の段階にて示され、利害関係者が関与する場合の更なる困難さが指摘される。

In recent years, complaints to and damages by wildlives increase rapidly and have become one of the social problems as wildlife issues. In this research, initial evaluation of model plans for such a wildlife issue of the Great Cormorant arising in Lake Biwa in Shiga Prefecture was performed. The level of importance of the attributes such as “damage to fisheries”, “damage to forests”, “population size of the Great Cormorant” and “tax burden” of measures on the wildlife issue of the Great Cormorant was computed respectively by conjoint analysis. Furthermore the model plans were evaluated using them.<BR>As a result of analysis by the Internet, importance was attached to “population size of the Great Cormorant”, and “tax burden” to the same extent. But it was also specified that this recognition is the mixture of some different recognition of preferences. Then, it examined what plan is supported in the case where such recognition is different. By using numerical results on their recognition of the wildlife issue of the Great Cormorant, the model plans were evaluated by the approval rating simulation of plans. Although the approval rating of the plans brought an influenced result by changing of “population size of the Great Cormorant” or “tax burden”, it was estimated that the approval rating of less drastic model plans was always high. The difficulty of problem solution is shown in the stage of model plans, and the further difficulty in case the beneficiaries involve is pointed out.

Journal

  • Japanese Journal of Evaluation Studies

    Japanese Journal of Evaluation Studies 2(2), 79-90, 2002

    THE JAPAN EVALUATION SOCIETY

Codes

Page Top