AN APPROACH TO UNCERTAINTY IDENTIFICATION IN HYDROLOGICAL MODELING

• CHIANG Shen

  Dept. of Civil Eng., Kyoto University

• TACHIKAWA Yasuto

  DPRI, Kyoto University

• TAKARA Kaoru

  DPRI, Kyoto University

Abstract

We propose a methodology to identify prediction uncertainty through recognizing and quantifying the different uncertainty sources in a hydrologic model. Statistical second moment is used as a measure of uncertainty; also an index which originated from Nash coefficient of efficiency named Model Structure Indicating Index (MSII) is proposed to quantify model structure uncertainty. The results show that MSII can well reflect the goodness of model structure, while a larger value of MSII indicating a poorer structure of hydrologic model. The index can be used as a tool for implementing model quantitative comparison (selection).

Journal

• PROCEEDINGS OF HYDRAULIC ENGINEERING

  PROCEEDINGS OF HYDRAULIC ENGINEERING 49 211-216, 2005

  Japan Society of Civil Engineers

Keywords

• Prediction Uncertainty
• Monte Carlo Simulation
• hydrological modeling

Details

• CRID: 1390282680147687552
• NII Article ID: 130003842116
• DOI: 10.2208/prohe.49.211
• ISSN: 18849172
• ISSN: 09167374
• Text Lang: en
• Data Source:
  • JaLC
  • Crossref
  • CiNii Articles
• Abstract License Flag: Disallowed