ENSEMBLE RAINFALL-RUNOFF PREDICTION WITH RADAR IMAGE EXTRAPOLATION AND ITS ERROR STRUCTURE

• KIM Sunmin

  Dept. of Urban and Environmental Eng., Kyoto University

• TACHIKAWA Yasuto

  DPRI, Kyoto University

• SAYAMA Takahiro

  DPRI, Kyoto University

• TAKARA Kaoru

  DPRI, Kyoto University

Abstract

New attempt of ensemble rainfall-runoff prediction is presented with radar rainfall prediction and spatial random error field simulation. A radar image extrapolation model gives deterministic rainfall predictions, and its prediction error structure is analyzed by comparing with the observed rainfall fields. With the analyzed error characteristics, spatial random error fields are simulated using covariance matrix decomposition method. The simulated random error fields successfully keep the analyzed error structure and improve the accuracy of the deterministic rainfall predictions; then the random error fields with the deterministic fields are given to a distributed hydrologic model to achieve an ensemble runoff prediction.

Journal

• PROCEEDINGS OF HYDRAULIC ENGINEERING

  PROCEEDINGS OF HYDRAULIC ENGINEERING 50 43-48, 2006

  Japan Society of Civil Engineers

Keywords

• radar rainfall prediction
• error structure
• random error field
• ensemble simulation

Details

• CRID: 1390282680148251264
• NII Article ID: 130004043851
• DOI: 10.2208/prohe.50.43
• ISSN: 18849172
• ISSN: 09167374
• Text Lang: en
• Data Source:
  • JaLC
  • Crossref
  • CiNii Articles
• Abstract License Flag: Disallowed