産業別雇用者分布に基づく農村地域の市町村別人口推計モデルに関する研究

• 守田 秀則

  京都大学農学部

• 北村 貞太郎

  京都大学農学部

書誌事項

タイトル別名

• Study on a population estimation model for rural area by cities, towns and villages based on distribution of industrial employment.

抄録

To make effective land use plan, it is essential to estimate future population in planning area. For that purpose, it is necessary to comprehend the formative mechanism of population distribution in the planning area, and to develop the population estimation method based on the mechanism. In this paper, we proposed the population estimaion model which aims to estimate the population by cities, towns and villages, and based on a substantiative study, examined the fitness of the model and tried to comprehend the formative mechanism of population distribution by cities, towns and villages.<BR>The population estimation model which proposed in this paper was constructed based on the idea that the population distribution had close relation with industrial structure, so it has the structure to estimate the population based on industrial structures and transportation conditions by cities, towns and villages, applying gravity model. Because of the purpose to make a concise model and to specify the effects of the primary industries and the secondary and tertiary industries on the population distribution formation, the input variables are consist of only four variables, which are ; firstly, the number of the primary industrial workers by cities, towns and villages, Secondary, the number of the secondary andtertiary industrial workers by cities towns and villages, thirdly, the road distances among each cities, towns andvillages, these three variables are used of estimation target year's values which are assumed as the exogenous variables, which are possible to estimate by someother methods, and lastly, the number of the population aged from fifteen to sixty-four by cities, towns and villages, this variable is used of estimation executive year's value. As a substantiative study, we applied this model to Kohoku region, Shiga prefecture using the census returns since the year 1955, and the estimation periods were 0, 5, 10 and 15 years. As the results, the fitness of the model was proved in each estimation period, because the correlations between estimated population and real population was rather high. Also the formative mechanism of population distribution in rural area was comprehended, and it was emphatically indicated that the location of establishments had became very important factor as the formation factor of population distribution in rural area year by year.

収録刊行物

• 農村計画学会誌

  農村計画学会誌 9 (3), 16-24, 1990

  農村計画学会

詳細情報

• CRID: 1390001204769182592
• NII論文ID: 130004048642
• DOI: 10.2750/arp.9.3_16
• ISSN: 18812309
• ISSN: 09129731
• 本文言語コード: ja
• データソース種別:
  • JaLC
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  • CiNii Articles
• 抄録ライセンスフラグ: 使用不可