Earthquake Forecasting System Based on Sequential Data Assimilation of Slip on the Plate Boundary

• HORI Takane

  Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology,

• MIYAZAKI Shin’ichi

  Graduate School of Science, Kyoto University

• HYODO Mamoru

  Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology,

• NAKATA Ryoko

  Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology,

• KANEDA Yoshiyuki

  Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology,

抄録

An earthquake forecasting system based on sequential data assimilation of slip on the plate boundary is constructed. Sequential Importance Sampling, a type of particle filter, is used for the data assimilation. A forward calculation is made using an earthquake generation cycle simulation. From the simulation results, we estimate crustal deformation that can be compared with observations of the GNSS Earth Observation Network System (GEONET) on land and the Dense Ocean Floor Network for Earthquakes and Tsunamis (DONET) on the seafloor. We demonstrate a numerical test of this system using synthetic data of seafloor deformation before virtual Nankai earthquakes. We also use a real GEONET data set to compare the results of earthquake generation cycles.

収録刊行物

• Theoretical and Applied Mechanics Japan

  Theoretical and Applied Mechanics Japan 62 (0), 179-189, 2014

  日本学術会議 「機械工学委員会・土木工学・建築学委員会合同IUTAM分科会」

詳細情報

• CRID: 1390282680186794624
• NII論文ID: 130004463864
• DOI: 10.11345/nctam.62.179
• ISSN: 13494244
• ISSN: 13480693
• 本文言語コード: en
• データソース種別:
  • JaLC
  • CiNii Articles
• 抄録ライセンスフラグ: 使用不可