Which Tests in Health Check-Ups are Important in Predicting the Future Health Care Costs of Japanese Workers?

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  • 健康診断の検査は医療費の予測に有効か
  • ケンコウ シンダン ノ ケンサ ワ イリョウヒ ノ ヨソク ニ ユウコウ カ

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Abstract

Using a theoretical framework in which individual future health care costs can be efficiently predicted by their present health status and present health care costs, we have tested the predictive powers of routine medical tests given to Japanese employees in their annual health checkups. As independent variables of health status, in addition to these routine tests, we have used the Disease Code dummies that have passed the Hausman specification tests. The data used for our estimation covers around 20 thousand employees of two corporations for several years with matching health checkup data and medical claims data. For the next year's health care costs, we find that the largest risk is the above average values of creatinine, but, sugar or uric acid levels in blood tend to work in the same way. On the other hand, all deviations (plus or minus) in BMI, total choresterol, and systolic blood pressure levels tend to increase the health care costs. For further into the future, the higher creatinine levels are consistently the most important risk factor of higher health care costs, but higher sugar and uric levels are also important risk factors as well. As to blood pressure, however, deviations in either direction in systolic pressure are associated with higher future health care costs, while, for diatolic pressure, deviation in the minus direction tends to decrease the future health care costs.

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  • Iryo To Shakai

    Iryo To Shakai 14 (3), 147-173, 2004

    The Health Care Science Institute

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