クラスター分析を用いた時系列相関型の全球確率台風モデル  [in Japanese] Global Stochastic Tropical Cyclone Model Based on Temporal Correlation Using Cluster Analysis  [in Japanese]

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Abstract

This study has examined improvement of the stochastic tropical cyclone model to predict tropical cyclone track, forward speed and intensity considering bimodal joint probability distribution function (PDF) of tropical cyclone statistics. The comparative test indicates that the bimodal joint PDF is necessary to obtain accurate results higher than 30-35 degree in latitude. The automatic classification based on cluster analysis is implemented to the stochastic tropical cyclone model. The bimodal joint PDF model showed higher performance both landfall number and intensity.

Journal

  • Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering)

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering) 68(2), I_1226-I_1230, 2012

    Japan Society of Civil Engineers

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