確率台風モデルと観測台風資料を組み合わせた高潮イベントアトリビューション —八代海を対象とした最悪台風経路の基礎的検討—  [in Japanese] Event Attribution of Storm Surge by Using Stochastic Tropical Cyclone Model and Observation Data -Basic Study of Worst-case Scenario of Tropical Cyclone for Yatsushiro Sea-  [in Japanese]

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Abstract

In this study, we evaluated the reproducibility of Tropical Cyclone (TC) parameters calculated by Global Stochastic Tropical cyclone Model (GSTM) for a local bay. A case study of storm surge simulation was performed to explain the practical meaning of GSTM. Synthetic TC data based on historical TC tracks were generated and they were used for input to numerical model for estimating the water level of storm surge at regional scale. The TC track of the worst-case scenario for Yatsushiro bay located in center of west Kyushu Island was selected numerically. Finally, the occurrence probability of the worst-case scenario was discussed from GSTM results.

Journal

  • Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering)

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering) 69(2), I_366-I_370, 2013

    Japan Society of Civil Engineers

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