DURABILITY OF AN ESTIMATED 50 YEAR-RETURN-VALUE OVER 50 YEARS, DISCUSSED BY INTRODUCING "DIFFRACTIVE EFFECT" ON THE ESTIMATION ERROR FOR FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS

• KITANO Toshikazu

  Nagoya Institute of Technology

• TAKAHASHI Rinya

  Kobe University

• TANAKA Shigenobu

  ICHARM

Bibliographic Information

Other Title

• 水文頻度解析における推定誤差の回折効果 ～ 50年確率は50年間有効であり続けるか？

Abstract

Return period is one of the most essential concepts in flood frequency analysis, but it has been applied without respecting its two aspects: local and global ones. The return values are generally calculated by considering the reciprocal number of return period as an occurence rate (or exceedance probability) per one year, which is an instantaneous quantity defined in the local aspect. On the other hand, the return period should be literally confirmed as the averaged time interval for the successive occurences, which is the global sense. In the latter viewpoint, we discuss the estimation error accompanied with the passage of time even for the stationary timeseries of extremes.

Journal

• Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B1 (Hydraulic Engineering)

  Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B1 (Hydraulic Engineering) 68 (4), I_1375-I_1380, 2012

  Japan Society of Civil Engineers

Keywords

• Degree of experience
• Diffraction effect
• Return period
• Climate change

Details

• CRID: 1390001205352232448
• NII Article ID: 130004557866
• DOI: 10.2208/jscejhe.68.i_1375
• ISSN: 2185467X
• Text Lang: ja
• Data Source:
  • JaLC
  • Crossref
  • CiNii Articles
  • KAKEN
• Abstract License Flag: Disallowed