港湾の機能停止の国際経済への影響分析手法:空間的応用一般均衡アプローチ  [in Japanese] A METHODOLOGY TO ANALYZE THE GLOBAL IMPACT DUE TO THE MALFUNCTION OF INTERNATIONAL PORTS: SPATIAL COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM APPROACH  [in Japanese]

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Abstract

本研究では,港湾の被災による機能低下が世界経済社会に及ぼす影響を定量的に分析するための枠組みを提示した.具体的には,空間的応用一般均衡モデルと,港湾の機能停止時の輸送構造の変化を表現するための国内陸上輸送モデルを用いて,平常時と被災時の経済状態を表現し,被災による港湾機能の停止が市場を介して世界経済に及ぼす影響を分析した.ケース分析として,名古屋港が機能停止に陥った場合の影響を分析した結果,名古屋港の被災は日本に多大な経済被害を及ぼし,日本国内の生産量を大幅に減少させるだけでなく,家計の厚生の低下という形で被害は諸外国に波及することが明らかとなった.また,長期的な均衡状態を考慮すると,生産要素が被災国から他国へとシフトする現象が見られた.

This paper develops a methodology to analyze the global impact due to the malfunction of the critical infrastructure, especially ports. The model consists of an international SCGE model and intra-regional overland transportation network model. As a case study, the impact due to the malfunction of port of Nagoya is estimated. It is revealed that the production of goods in Japan decreases in most sectors. However, the economical damage strikes not only the affected country but also other countries especially those which have close ties with Japan. Moreover, it results in the change of world trading network and also the shift of productive factors from the affected country to other countries.

Journal

  • Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management) 67(5), 67_I_243-67_I_254, 2011

    Japan Society of Civil Engineers

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