輸送ネットワーク構造を考慮した国際海峡の安全対策における協調可能性の分析  [in Japanese] COOPERATION OF SAFE OPERATION IN INTERNATIONAL STRAITS CONSIDERING TRANSPORT NETWORK STRUCTURE  [in Japanese]

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Abstract

本研究では,国際海峡の潜在的通航価値の計量方法を提案し,実際にマラッカ海峡と津軽海峡を数値計算例として海峡通航安全航行の機会費用の推計を行った.さらに,海峡安全対策を巡る各主体間における協力体制の枠組み構築について検討を加えた.まず,国際海峡通航不能時の海運市場の変化を推定するために,船社の航路決定行動のモデル化を行った.次に,マラッカ海峡と津軽海峡を取り上げ,船社,荷主,港湾が有する国際海峡安全航行の潜在的価値を機会費用として定量化した.その結果,船社と荷主に関しては国際海峡安全航行のための費用の共同負担について全提携が可能であるが,港湾に関してはターミナルオペレーターレベルでのコスト上昇の回避を行っている可能性があることを指摘した.

This paper proposes a method of measuring the value of safe operation in international straits and estimates economic losses on the assumption that an international strait is shut down through the case of the Malacca Straits or the Tsugaru Straits as an example. Based on this estimation, we discuss the possibility of international cooperation of all stakeholders—shippers, carriers and ports— in the safe operation in international straits. Firstly, in order to estimate the damage to maritime trans port markets by the shutdown of international straits, we develop a carrier's model of emergency shipping network under the shutdown. Secondly, we measure the potential value of safe operation which each stakeholder has as the opportunity cost. The results suggest that there is a possibility of international cooperation in safe operation between shippers and carriers in terms of cost burden, but on the other hand, global terminal operators may hedge against economic losses with managing multi ports.

Journal

  • Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management) 67(5), 67_I_929-67_I_938, 2011

    Japan Society of Civil Engineers

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