相互依存性を考慮した港湾における防災投資行動分析  [in Japanese] DISASTER PREVENTION INVESTMENT FOR PORT MANAGEMENT UNDER THE CONDITION OF INTERDEPENDENT RISKS  [in Japanese]

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Abstract

本研究では,重要インフラの一つである港湾に着目し,港湾における防災投資行動の分析を行う.一般に防災投資は,私的動機に基づいた自発的なものである.しかし,ネットワーク全体からみれば,取引相手港への影響も考慮した防災投資を行うことが最適となり,その間には乖離が生じてしまう.また,この港湾ネットワークにて防災投資を行うときには相互補完性が生じ,防災投資に関する意思決定のナッシュ均衡解が複数存在することがある.本研究では,災害債権を導入することで,私的動機に基づく防災投資とネットワーク全体からみた最適な防災投資との間に生じる乖離を改善できることを示した.

Critical infrastructure is defined as those which, if destroyed, would adversely impact on the social or economic well-being. This study focuses on a global port system, which is one of global critical infrastructure, and take up the disaster reduction investment. In the port system, if a port is destroyed and the other ports are not destroyed, some ports may be damaged indirectly. It means there is independency in this system. So, the decision making of one port depends on the decision making of the other ports. Each port minimizes its expected loss given the others strategy for mitigation investment. However, the total expected loss isn't minimized. That is, externality brought about by interdependency among the ports makes a gap between social optimum and nash equilibrium. In order to improve the problem, this paper proposes CAT-Bond. This CAT-Bond has a trigger related to the malfunction of the other port. consequently, this can reduce the gaps between social optimum and nash equilibrium.

Journal

  • Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management) 68(5), I_155-I_166, 2012

    Japan Society of Civil Engineers

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