SCE-UA法を用いたタンクモデルの最適構造構築に関する一考察  [in Japanese] STUDY ON OPTIMIZED CONSTRUCTION OF TANK MODEL USING SCE-UA METHOD  [in Japanese]

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タンクモデルを用いて,河川の流出予測や土砂災害の発生予測等を行う場合,タンクモデルの構造とパラメータは,流量観測データに整合するように同定することが望ましいが,それらを同時に同定することは困難である.そのため,タンクモデルの構築にあたっては,その構造を予め定めた上で,最適なパラメータを同定する方法が一般的であり,構造の同定に関しては十分な検討が行われていない.<br> そこで,本研究では最適化手法の1つであるSCE-UA法を活用し,流量観測データに基づいてタンク構造とパラメータの同定を同時に行うことを試みた.山口県佐波川流域を対象として検討を行った結果,最終的に得られた3段タンクモデルは,より複雑な5段タンクモデルと概ね同等の精度で流出量の再現が可能なモデルであった.

 A tank model is widely used to make a run-off analysis or a prediction of the land-slide disaster occurrence. To obtain accurate simulation results it is necessary to identify a model structure and its model parameters suitably. However, it is difficult to identify the model structure and parameters simultaneously. The conventional manner to construct the tank model is that the model structure is determined in advance and then the model parameters are identified. The identification of the tank structure has not discussed sufficiently. In this study, we have attempted to identify the model structure and the model parameters with SCE-UA method which is one of the optimization methods. The identification in the model has been conducted to the Saba River basin, Yamaguchi Prefecture. It is found that the obtained three tanks model can predict the observation data with the nearly same precision as the complex five tanks model.

Journal

  • Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. F3 (Civil Engineering Informatics)

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. F3 (Civil Engineering Informatics) 70(1), 12-17, 2014

    Japan Society of Civil Engineers

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