AN OPTIMAL INFECTION DETERRENCE MODEL OF FOOT-AND-MOUTH DISEASE

• ABE Maiku

  (株)パスコ中央事業部技術センター

• KOBAYASHI Kiyoshi

  京都大学経営管理大学院

Bibliographic Information

Other Title

• 口蹄疫の最適伝染リスク抑止モデル

Abstract

 This paper discusses the disastrous risk of asset loss by the foot-and-mouth disease and presents a methodology to investigate the strategies to deter spatial infection of foot-and-mouth disease to minimize the expected cost driven by asset loss. The spatial infection process of the diseases is formulated by Markov chain models. Since the model is characterized by a large number of state variables, it is impossible to enumerate all state variables in the form of explicit Markov chain models. The paper proposes to calculate approximate values of risk evaluation indices and find out better strategies which may reduce the expected damage as small as possible by use of quasi Monte Carlo simulation. The availability of the proposed methodology is verified using the case of the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in Miyazaki prefecture in 2010.

Journal

• Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)

  Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management) 70 (3), 161-178, 2014

  Japan Society of Civil Engineers

Keywords

• optimal infection deterrence
• foot-and-mouth disease
• quasi Monte Carlo
• Markov chain

Details

• CRID: 1390282680332625536
• NII Article ID: 130004680000
• DOI: 10.2208/jscejipm.70.161
• ISSN: 21856540
• Text Lang: ja
• Data Source:
  • JaLC
  • Crossref
  • CiNii Articles
  • KAKEN
• Abstract License Flag: Disallowed