東京都心部および近郊部における年齢構造の時系列分析  [in Japanese] TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF THE AGE STRUCTURE IN CENTRAL TOKYO AREA  [in Japanese]

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Abstract

東京圏における人口増減,高齢化の進行は空間的に一様でなく,地域差を把握したうえで,それに対応した施策が求められている.既往研究により,郊外鉄道沿線の年齢構造変化の差異は明らかになっているが,都心部の分析は今後の課題とされている.そこで本研究では,東京23区を対象に,5歳年齢階級人口メッシュデータを用いて年齢構造の時系列分析を行った.その結果,人口増減は20歳代前半で最大であり,上の年代ほど小さい傾向にあることから,特定地域の急速な高齢化を避けるための施策を20~30歳代をターゲットに検討することが重要であることを指摘した.また,15~24歳の増加と25~44歳の減少のために年齢構造が大きく変化しない傾向の強い地域,特定年代の集積があるために他地域よりも高齢化が急速に進み輸送需要が減少する可能性のある鉄道路線を指摘した.

In the Tokyo metropolitan area, the pattern of population fluctuation and aging depends on the area; thus it is important to grasp the difference in order to make a well-balanced residence policy. There have been studies on the changes of age structure along suburban radial railways but focusing on the central area using other methods of analysis is an issue that remained unexplored until now. This study aims to analyze the time series changes of age structure in the central Tokyo area (the 23 wards area). Inside the central Tokyo area, the population fluctuation of 20 to 24 years old is larger than that of any other age class. The older the age class is, the smaller the population fluctuation tends to be. Therefore, in order to avoid rapid aging in a particular area, it is important to target a well-balanced residence policy on people in their twenties and thirties. Furthermore, this study found places where the age structure is not apt to change because the 15 to 24-year old population increases and that of 25 to 44 decreases. This study also pointed out several railway lines for which a decrease in the number of users is foreseen because of rapid aging along them due to a concentration of a particular age class.

Journal

  • Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management) 69(5), I_265-I_274, 2013

    Japan Society of Civil Engineers

Codes

  • NII Article ID (NAID)
    130004707525
  • Text Lang
    JPN
  • NDL Article ID
    026039550
  • NDL Call No.
    YH247-1182
  • Data Source
    NDL  J-STAGE 
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