地域洪水頻度解析と洪水災害予測:石狩川流域のスケーリングと洪水氾濫図  [in Japanese] Regional Flood Frequency Analysis and Prediction of Flood Disaster: Scaling Properties and Hazard Map in the Ishikari River Basin  [in Japanese]

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Author(s)

    • 葛葉 泰久 KUZUHA Yasuhisa
    • 防災科学技術研究所|現所属:三重大学生物資源学部 National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention|Now at Faculty of Bioresources, Mie University
    • 岸井 徳雄 KISHII Tokuo
    • 防災科学技術研究所|現所属:金沢工業大学環境・建築学部 National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention|Now at College of Environmental Engineering and Architecture, Kanazawa Institute of Technology
    • 小松 陽介 [他] KOMATSU Yosuke
    • 防災科学技術研究所|現所属:立正大学地球環境科学部 National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention|Now at Faculty of Geo-Environmental Science, Rissho University

Abstract

著者らは,以前から,北海道の流域が,スケーリングの枠組みの一つであり,融雪流出が卓越する地域でよく見られる地域の特徴である<I>simple scaling</I> にほぼ従うと主張してきた.それに対し,豪雨流出が卓越する地域のスケーリングの特徴として知られるのが<I>multiscaling </I>である.この論文では,この地域の洪水流量のスケーリングがどちらの枠組みに従うのかを,さらに厳密に検討した.尤度比検定の結果は,その地域の洪水流量が,<I>multiscaling</I> に従うことを示唆している.そして,他の検討方法も含め,著者らは,「北海道地域の洪水流量は,<I>multiscaling</I> に従うと考えても良いが,他の日本の地域と比較すると,<I>simple scaling</I> の傾向が強い」と結論付ける.この結果,洪水流量と流域面積間に成立する「互いの対数が線形」という関係における勾配(スケーリング指数という)を,再起確率(再現期間)ごとに求める必要が出てきた.そこで,以下の手続きで,石狩川流域における洪水氾濫図を作った.<BR>1)観測点で,T年洪水流量を求める;2)Tごとに,スケーリング指数を求める;3)観測点のT年洪水流量を,未観測点に移送する(観測点のない地点の洪水流量を予測する);4)得られた洪水流量が破堤によって,氾濫したとして,氾濫計算をする.

The authors have been insisted that scaling property in Hokkaido region, which is the northern region in Japan, is almost <I>simple scaling</I>. Simple scaling is a scaling feature for regions where snowmelt-generated flood is dominant. On the other hand, <I>multiscaling</I> is a feature for regions where storm-generated flood is dominant.<BR>In this paper, the authors tried to more rigorously investigate it than previous papers which the authors published. As a result, a likelihood ratio test indicated that a characteristic parameter which dominates properties of <I>multiscaling</I> is not zero in this region, viz., scaling in Hokkaido region exhibits <I>multiscaling</I>, In addition to this result, the authors investigated flood characteristics in Hokkaido region and concluded as follow: flood data in this region suggest belonging to <I>multiscaling</I> framework, but data exhibits ‘stronger’ <I>simple scaling</I> than other regions in Japan. According to this conclusion, the authors calculated each scaling exponent (which respectively corresponds to each return periods independently; say, 10yrs, 100yrs, 1000yrs....) which is the slope of equation for logarithm of catchment area and that of flood discharge. After that, the authors carried out inundation simulation, and obtained flood hazard maps in the Ishikari basin. The outline of making process of flood hazard map is as follows;<BR>1)calculating flood discharge for return period T(yrs) for each gauged basins;<BR>2)obtaining each scaling exponent for each return period; regional flood frequency analysis;<BR>3)transferring flood discharge from gauged basins (observation station) to ungauged basins (location):<BR>4)carrying out inundation simulation.

Journal

  • JOURNAL OF JAPAN SOCIETY OF HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES

    JOURNAL OF JAPAN SOCIETY OF HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES 18(5), 557-574, 2005

    THE JAPAN SOCIETY OF HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES

Cited by:  1

Codes

  • NII Article ID (NAID)
    130004846222
  • NII NACSIS-CAT ID (NCID)
    AN10088049
  • Text Lang
    JPN
  • Article Type
    Journal Article
  • ISSN
    0915-1389
  • NDL Article ID
    7484576
  • NDL Source Classification
    ZM44(科学技術--地球科学--海洋・陸水・火山)
  • NDL Call No.
    Z15-619
  • Data Source
    CJPref  NDL  J-STAGE 
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