太陽光発電出力予測のためのJust-In-Time Modelingを用いた日射量予測信頼区間の推定方法 [in Japanese] Estimation Method of Prediction Interval of Solar Irradiance Based on Just-In-Time Modeling for Photovoltaic Output Prediction [in Japanese]
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PV system recently attracts much attention on the back of environmental problems, antinuclear power movements and energy problems. Therefore, a large scale introduction of PV system is expected in the near future. On the other hand, a lot of PV systems connected to the power system bring on some problems. For example, a system voltage often drifts from the norm when the reverse power flow increase. Accordingly, it is necessary to perform an optimal system operation in order to utilize a solar energy to the maximum by installing energy buffers, e. g. storage batteries. Especially, the forecast information i.e., the reliability as well as predicted solar irradiance is essential for the effective operation. In this paper, we propose a way to estimate the prediction interval of the solar irradiance as an index of reliability by using Just-In-Time Modeling (JIT Modeling). We consider the accuracy of the prediction interval under many conditions and derive the high-precision estimation method. In addition, we also talk about the future outlook of this study.
- IEEJ Transactions on Power and Energy
IEEJ Transactions on Power and Energy 135(3), 160-167, 2015
The Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan