地球温暖化予測に基づく将来台風変化予測とその確率モデリング Prediction and Stochastic Modeling of Future Typhoon Characteristics based on AGCM Projections under Global Warming Scenario

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Author(s)

Abstract

The present study evaluated the prediction power of a stochastic typhoon model for the typhoons to attack three major bay areas in Japan, by taking typhoon characteristics based on AGCM projections under global warming scenario. Utilizing the Monte Carlo simulation as the stochastic modeling on the data of past typhoons for 100 years, it was found out that the number of typhoons that would hit Japan will decrease by 30 percent and that the mean of the lowest central atmospheric pressures of typhoons would be more less equal with one another. On the other hand, it was found that the arrival probability of the typhoons of 920 hPa or less in their central atmospheric pressures will increase by several percent.

Journal

  • Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering)

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering) 65(1), 1281-1285, 2009

    Japan Society of Civil Engineers

Codes

  • NII Article ID (NAID)
    130004956254
  • Text Lang
    ENG
  • ISSN
    1884-2399
  • Data Source
    J-STAGE 
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