地震火災に関わるメタ無知と災害シミュレーションの効果検証  [in Japanese] META-IGNORANCE ON EARTHQUAKE FIRE AND MITIGATING EFFECTS BY PRESENTATION OF DISASTER SIMULATION  [in Japanese]

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Abstract

本研究では,自然災害に関わる想定の限界についての認識不足を「メタ無知」と呼称し,地震火災を対象として,人々の想定意識やメタ無知の程度を実証的に検討すると共に,メタ無知を緩和するための方策として災害シミュレーションを提示した効果を検証する.この目的の下,愛媛県松山市久枝地区住民を対象として,地震火災時の延焼状況を再現したシミュレーション実験を行った.その結果,地震火災に関わる想定意識の低い人は自分の想定の低さを感知しておらず,メタ無知に陥る傾向が示唆された.また,行政への依存傾向が高い人ほど,メタ無知に陥る傾向が高いことが示された.さらに,災害シミュレーションを閲覧することにより,そうしたメタ無知が緩和される効果が確認された.一方,災害シミュレーションの閲覧は,行政への依存傾向を却って高めるという副作用も持ち得ることが示された.

 This study refers to our lack of cognition about the limit of our own presumption ragarding natural disasters as <i>meta-ignorance</i>. It investigated how people tend to suffer from meta-ignorance regarding fire disaster occurred due to earthquake and then examined the effect of disaster simulation to mitigate the meta-ignorance. The result indicated the phenomenon of <i>meta-ignorance</i>: those who underestimate the level of the earthquake fire hazards tend to underestimate the possibility of occurrence of situations exceeding his or her estimation. It was also found that meta-recognition regarding one's own presumption about earthquake fire was associated negatively with the tendency of dependence on government for disaster prevention. Furthermore, it was shown that the presentation of disaster simulation has an effect to reduce the tendency of meta-ignorance.

Journal

  • Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. F6 (Safety Problem)

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. F6 (Safety Problem) 70(2), I_1-I_6, 2014

    Japan Society of Civil Engineers

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