人口の逆転現象ないしは「反都市化現象」に関する研究動向

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タイトル別名
  • ON THE PHENOMENON OF POPULATION TURNAROUND OR “COUNTERURBANIZATION”
  • ジンコウ ノ ギャクテン ゲンショウ
  • ON THE PHENOMENON OF POPULATION TURNAROUND OR “COUNTERURBANIZATION”

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In advanced countries, especially in the United States, a new population change is appearing which deviates from the tendency existing till about the late 1960s. It is a product not only of a change in demographic structure but also of a change in socioeconomic structure due to a high level of technology development. Previously, urbanization stimulated the economic growth of a region; urban growth, high density and heterogeneity of urban cores were basic features of urbanization. Theories and policies of regional development, such as growth center policy and polarization theory, have been considered in light of such a tendency. Therefore, the population turnaround in the United States was a great surprise to most social scientists. As a result since the 1970s a great many studies about the features of population change and its causes have been generated.<br> The aim of this paper is to clarify the features of population change through the findings of previous research and to reveal the problems with these studies. The principal findings are summarized as follows:<br> Due to the remarkable population changes which occurred in the United States since about 1970, the situation has already entered a stage of population deconcentration. In a reversal of the net out-migration phenomenon of the 1960s the population increase in the 1970s was recognized not only in adjacent but also in nonadjacent nonmetropolitan counties. Additionally, counterurbanization in the United States is characterized not only by such metropolitan-to-nonmetropolitan migration, but also by regional differentiation of population change due to the revolutionary development of transportation and communication technology. In the South and the West, the population increase occurred in large cities as well as in nonmetropolitan areas, whereas in the Northeast and the North Central the population decreased in the majority of metropolitan areas. In contrast, many West European countries still remain in the phase of decentralization and the main stream of migration continues to occur from central cities to their suburban areas. This tendency is occurring in Japan as well.<br> Various factors for the generation of counterurbanization in the United States have been considered. Though the technical development of transportation and communication has undoubtedly played a significant role as a foundamental factor of population change, the change of life style for American people cannot be ignored. Due to the rather significant development of the service sector in the 1970s the role of industrial dispersal into nonmetropolitan areas was not given under consideration. According to the analysis of questionnaire surveys, many inmigrants into non- metropolitan areas were people of relatively high social status but it was pointed out from the analysis of statistical data that they were often retirees who require the quality of life.<br> Recognizing that the phenomenon of counterurbanization may proceed in a similar way in other advanced countries, social scientists have been greatly interested in its trend. It is important that they confirm whether population dipersal is a temporary phenomenon or long-standing trend. Although the population growth in nonadjacent nonmetropolitan areas is a significant factor in understanding counterurbanization, the debate over whether this is a reversal or a continuance of the previous urbanization process is not yet resolved.<br> As shown in Figure 4, metropolitan-nonmetropolitan migration and the movement of plants and service establishments should be more fully examined in detail within the national, regional and daily urban systems. Additionally, an analysis of migration between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas, and between large-scale and small-scale metropolitan areas of the hierarchical structure of the national urban system should be conducted.

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