TROUBLESOME PROBLEM ON ESTIMATION OF UPPER BOUND FOR MAXIMUM AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IN EXTREME VALUE ANALYSIS

• KITANO Toshikazu

  Nagoya Institute of Technology

• TAKAHASHI Rinya

  Kobe University

• TANAKA Shigenobu

  Kyoto University, DPRI

Bibliographic Information

Other Title

• 極値統計解析による降水量の上限の推定可能性
• ゴクチ トウケイ カイセキ ニ ヨル コウスイリョウ ノ ジョウゲン ノ スイテイ カノウセイ

Abstract

Upper bound for the total amount of precipitation is an important factor in determining the design discharge. The probable maximum precipitation can be examined by solving the governing equations of the hydrological processes, while the spacial distribution should be supported by evidence of the past records in the statistical sense. To estimate the upper bound will be a harder challenge than to do the return levels against finite return periods, because the degree of experience become to zero for the upper bound. This paper points out the difficulty which is caused by a trade-off with increasing sample size, and demonstrates how it appears by the numerical simulations.

Journal

• Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B1 (Hydraulic Engineering)

  Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B1 (Hydraulic Engineering) 70 (4), I_451-I_456, 2014

  Japan Society of Civil Engineers

Keywords

• Degree of experience
• Central limit theorem
• End point
• Heavy rain by Typhoon Talas

Details

• CRID: 1390282680329488640
• NII Article ID: 130005070296
• NII Book ID: AN10426673
• ISSN: 18808751
• ISSN: 2185467X
• ISSN: 09167374
• DOI: 10.2208/jscejhe.70.i_451
• NDL BIB ID: 025429589
• Web Site: https://ndlsearch.ndl.go.jp/books/R000000004-I025429589
• Text Lang: ja
• Data Source:
  • JaLC
  • NDL
  • Crossref
  • CiNii Articles
  • KAKEN
• Abstract License Flag: Disallowed