AN ESTIMATION OF RECOVERY CURVE OF MARITIME CONTAINERIZED CARGO DEMAND AFTER LARGE-SCALE EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI
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- AKAKURA Yasuhiro
- 京都大学 防災研究所 社会防災研究部門
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- HEMMI Mitsuru
- 国土交通省 鉄道局 幹線鉄道課
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- ONO Kenji
- 京都大学 防災研究所 社会防災研究部門
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- ISHIHARA Masatoyo
- 国土交通省 近畿地方整備局 港湾空港部
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- FUKUMOTO Masatake
- （独）港湾空港技術研究所 企画管理部
Bibliographic Information
- Other Title
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- 海運依存産業における大規模地震・津波後のコンテナ貨物需要の復旧曲線
- カイウン イソン サンギョウ ニ オケル ダイキボ ジシン ・ ツナミ ゴ ノ コンテナ カモツ ジュヨウ ノ フッキュウ キョクセン
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Abstract
After the Great East Japan Earthquake, port functions of east Japan on the Pacific stopped for a long time. This damage led to the stagnation of maritime container transport and caused further economic damages. To address this problem, Port-BCPs (Business Continuity Plan for port management) are now being developed as prepare for large-scale earthquake and tsunami. Estimation of cargo demand after the outbreak of supposed disaster is indispensable for making Port-BCP.<br>Based on this background, this study estimated a recovery curve of maritime containerized cargo demand after large-scale earthquake and tsunami by the result of questionnaire survey of the damaged factories by the Great East Japan Earthquake. This recovery curve was estimated based on the JMA seismic intensity and tsunami inundation height in order to apply to future large-scale earthquake and tsunami. Finally, estimated result was compared to the PIERS data, which is detailed US import/export data, and reproduced with sufficient accuracy.
Journal
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- Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)
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Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management) 70 (5), I_689-I_699, 2014
Japan Society of Civil Engineers