STOCHASTIC BEACH MANAGEMENT BASED ON RISK ESTIMATION FOR COASTAL DISASTER
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- BANNO Masayuki
- Port and Airport Research Institute
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- KURIYAMA Yoshiaki
- Port and Airport Research Institute
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- NAKAGAWA Yasuyuki
- Port and Airport Research Institute
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- HASHIMOTO Noriaki
- Kyushu University
Bibliographic Information
- Other Title
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- 沿岸災害リスクの評価に基づく海浜の確率的維持管理手法
- エンガン サイガイ リスク ノ ヒョウカ ニ モトズク カイヒン ノ カクリツテキ イジ カンリ シュホウ
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Abstract
This study proposed the stochastic beach management method considering the variability of beach morphology, sea level and wave run-up height. The probability of the coastal disaster is calculated for the wave run-up over the coastal defense line and the beach is managed based on the probability. As an example of the application of the method, the vulnerability on the Hasaki coast for the future climate change was estimated by comparing the present and future probability of the coastal disaster. The estimation of the vulnerability is helpful in considering the adaptation plan to climate change. Based on the measured beach condition at present, the probability of the coastal disaster for a certain period on the Hasaki coast was estimated by calculating the conditional probability distribution of the beach topography with the foreshore beach profile change model. The estimation of the probability for a certain period serves a tool for the beach management.
Journal
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- Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering)
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Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering) 71 (2), I_511-I_516, 2015
Japan Society of Civil Engineers