震度継続時間予測モデルの実地震に対する適用と検証  [in Japanese] APPLICATION AND VALIDATION OF THE CONSISTENT SCHEME FOR PREDICTION OF JMA SEISMIC INTENSITY AND ITS DURATION  [in Japanese]

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Abstract

筆者は既往研究において,震度情報を与件とする震度継続時間の条件付予測式を提示した.さらに,震度の距離減衰式と継続時間の条件付予測式を統合して,予測震度のばらつきを考慮した震度継続時間の期待値および標準偏差を確率論的に定式化したが,実地震への適用と精度検証を課題としていた.本研究は震度・継続時間の一貫した経験的予測スキームを2014年長野県神城断層地震に適用し,予測精度に関する検証を行ったものである.観測震度に基づく継続時間予測値は実測値と相関が高いことと,距離減衰式による予測震度に基づく継続時間予測値はばらつきが大きくなるが残差に偏りがないことを示した.また予測震度を介さない震度継続時間予測モデルを構築して予測結果を比較し,提案スキームの有効性を示した.

 The author previously proposed prediction equations for uniform durations of JMA seismic intensity assuming that intensity is observed or predicted exogenously. Furthermore, by incorporating GMPE for intensity and its uncertainty, a consistent scheme for prediction of intensity and duration was proposed. However, application and validation of the proposed scheme to an actual earthquake has not been performed. In this study, the proposed scheme has been applied to the 2014 Nagano-ken Hokubu Earthquake (<i>M<sub>w</sub></i>=6.2). Durations estimated using observed intensity are highly correlated with observed durations. Those based on predicted intensity vary widely, however, dispersions are found to be unbiased around the observed durations. For comparison purpose, duration prediction equations obtained by direct regression are also derived and validated. As a whole, advantage of the suggested scheme has been validated.

Journal

  • Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. A1 (Structural Engineering & Earthquake Engineering (SE/EE))

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. A1 (Structural Engineering & Earthquake Engineering (SE/EE)) 72(4), I_44-I_54, 2016

    Japan Society of Civil Engineers

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