Attributing Historical Changes in Probabilities of Record-Breaking Daily Temperature and Precipitation Extreme Events

• Shiogama Hideo

  Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies

• Imada Yukiko

  Meteorological Research Institute

• Mori Masato

  Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo

• Mizuta Ryo

  Meteorological Research Institute

• Stone Dáithí

  Computational Research Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

• Yoshida Kohei

  Meteorological Research Institute

• Arakawa Osamu

  Faculty of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba

• Ikeda Mikiko

  Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology

• Takahashi Chiharu

  Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, the University of Tokyo

• Arai Miki

  Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies

• Ishii Masayoshi

  Meteorological Research Institute

• Watanabe Masahiro

  Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, the University of Tokyo

• Kimoto Masahide

  Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, the University of Tokyo

抄録

We describe two unprecedented large (100-member), long-term (61-year) ensembles based on MRI-AGCM3.2, which were driven by historical and non-warming climate forcing. These ensembles comprise the “Database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF)”. We compare these ensembles to large ensembles based on another climate model, as well as to observed data, to investigate the influence of anthropogenic activities on historical changes in the numbers of record-breaking events, including: the annual coldest daily minimum temperature (TNn), the annual warmest daily maximum temperature (TXx) and the annual most intense daily precipitation event (Rx1day). These two climate model ensembles indicate that human activity has already had statistically significant impacts on the number of record-breaking extreme events worldwide mainly in the Northern Hemisphere land. Specifically, human activities have altered the likelihood that a wider area globally would suffer record-breaking TNn, TXx and Rx1day events than that observed over the 2001-2010 period by a factor of at least 0.6, 5.4 and 1.3, respectively. However, we also find that the estimated spatial patterns and amplitudes of anthropogenic impacts on the probabilities of record-breaking events are sensitive to the climate model and/or natural-world boundary conditions used in the attribution studies.

収録刊行物

• SOLA

  SOLA 12 (0), 225-231, 2016

  公益社団法人 日本気象学会

キーワード

• Atmospheric Science

詳細情報

• CRID: 1390001205222859008
• NII論文ID: 130005259661
• DOI: 10.2151/sola.2016-045
• ISSN: 13496476
• Web Site: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/sola/12/0/12_2016-045/_pdf
• 本文言語コード: en
• データソース種別:
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