水位上昇速度に着目した八代海湾奥での高潮災害の特徴分析と水防活動の関連について  [in Japanese] CHARACTERISTICS OF WATER LEVEL RISE SPEED BY STORM SURGE AT INNER PART OF YATSUSHIRO BAY AND DISASTER REDUCTION ACTIVITY  [in Japanese]

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Abstract

2015年8月に熊本県宇城市で生じた高潮による浸水被害は河道内に設置された水門操作の遅れに一因がある.豪雨警報が発令されている状況下での防潮堤閉門は河川氾濫の危険性もあるために閉門のタイミングを見極めることが難しく,水位のモニタリングを行いながら操作を行っていた.本研究ではこの2015年15号台風Goniの高潮特性について観測結果と数値モデルを用いて分析し,過去の事例と比較を行うことで急激な水位上昇の発生原因を調べた.加えて既往の台風経路に同一の中心気圧と進行速度の変化シナリオを与えて水位上昇率の変化幅を推定した.その結果,今後の水防活動で想定すべき高潮の水位上昇率とそれが生じる台風経路の特性について明らかにした.

 The operation of tidal gate constructed in river is difficult when heavy rain is forecasted because flood risk is significant. The delay of operation caused overflow by storm surge in Yatsushiro Bay at August 2015. One of the reason was unexperienced high speed of water level rise. In this study, we analyzed the mechanism of this phenomena and compared to past storm surge events. Then we assessed the variance of water level rise speed from virtual tropical cyclone scenario. Finally, typical tropical cyclone tracks causing high water level rise were selected. Then one viewpoint to assess the possibility of dangerous storm surge event was shown.

Journal

  • Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B3 (Ocean Engineering)

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B3 (Ocean Engineering) 72(2), I_25-I_30, 2016

    Japan Society of Civil Engineers

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