海面気圧の主成分を考慮した全球の統計的波高推定手法の開発  [in Japanese] STATISTICAL MODELING OF GLOBAL WAVE HEIGHTS PREDICTION CONSIDERING PRINCIPAL COMPONENT ANALYSIS OF SEA LEVEL PRESSURES  [in Japanese]

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Abstract

JRA-55長期再解析と,これをもとに計算された波浪解析値を基本データとし,大気情報から波高を計算する統計的波高予測モデルを開発した.各計算格子点において,ある時点の場の風と気圧の情報のみから波高計算を行う従来モデルに,気圧の主成分の時係数を説明変数として加えて,うねりを考慮可能とした.気圧の主成分を考えることにより,その場の風や気圧の情報のみから計算を行う従来モデルと比較して,大幅な精度の向上を得た.特に従来モデルで相関の良くなかった海域において,誤差を大きく減少させることができ,中でも夏季の波高減少や冬季の波高増加の季節変動特性の過小評価が改善された.

 A statistical model of global wave heights prediction was developed based on the JRA-55 reanalysis data. The previous version of the statistical model estimates global wave heights from wind velocities, sea level pressures and their gradients. This study implemented results from a principal component analysis(PCA) of sea level pressures in the statistical model. The PCA method does better in swell, so the error decreased especially in the area where the previous model failed to estimate wave heights properly. The proposed model significantly improves the underestimation of monthly wave height from local wind and pressure model (the previous model): a positive bias in summer and a negative bias in winter in northern hemisphere.

Journal

  • Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering)

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering) 72(2), I_139-I_144, 2016

    Japan Society of Civil Engineers

Codes

  • NII Article ID (NAID)
    130005282245
  • Text Lang
    JPN
  • ISSN
    1884-2399
  • NDL Article ID
    027807972
  • NDL Call No.
    YH267-236
  • Data Source
    NDL  J-STAGE 
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