複数地域での同時被災を考慮した高潮災害の集積リスク評価手法に関する研究  [in Japanese] EVALUATION OF AGGREGATE LOSS BY STORM SURGE CONSIDERING SIMULTANEOUS DAMAGE OCCURRENCE IN MULTIPLE AREAS  [in Japanese]

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Abstract

複数地域の同時被災を考慮した高潮リスク評価は,これまでほとんど行われていない.本研究では,日本の主要な湾を対象に,複数地域での同時被災を考慮した高潮災害の集積直接経済リスク評価手法の開発を行った.確率台風モデルによる1000年分の仮想台風を用い,複数地域を通る台風の通過確率を求めた.そのすべての台風について簡易式を用いて高潮を算定する一方で,一部の強い台風について高潮氾濫解析を行って被害額を求め,損失関数を求めた.この損失関数を用いてすべての台風の合計被害額を算定し,被害額と再現期間(年超過確率)で表されるイベントカーブをリスク評価に用いた.三大湾の集積リスクを考慮した場合,再現期間の長い台風では,伊勢湾と大阪湾で同時被災するリスクが最も大きく,再現期間の短い台風では,大阪湾1地域のみ被災するリスクが最も大きくなった.最大クラスシナリオを考える際には,本評価手法で複数地域での集積リスクを考慮する必要があることを示した.

 Assessment of aggregate loss becomes important in the Enterprize Risk Management. Municipality usually assesses storm surge damage caused by an expected maximum typhoon, and its procedure does not considers simultaneous damage occurrence in multiple areas. This study develops integrated disaster assessment method of storm surge damage considering simultaneous occurrence in the three major bays: Tokyo, Ise, and Osaka. Stochastic typhoon model enables to estimate probability of typhoon passing through the multiple areas. Nonlinear shallow water model estimates inundation area caused by storm surge and loss on assets in hinterland. Loss function which represents loss and return period of typhoons, and an event curve which represents loss and annual exceedance probability are used for risk assessment. The proposed method shows that aggregate risk is different depend on return period. For the worst class typhoons, the aggregate risk in Ise and Osaka bays becomes larger than the single risk in each bays.

Journal

  • Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering)

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering) 72(2), I_1639-I_1644, 2016

    Japan Society of Civil Engineers

Codes

  • NII Article ID (NAID)
    130005282297
  • Text Lang
    JPN
  • ISSN
    1884-2399
  • NDL Article ID
    027813583
  • NDL Call No.
    YH267-236
  • Data Source
    NDL  J-STAGE 
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