第二室戸台風にもとづく大阪湾の高潮と浸水範囲におよぼす気候変動の感度評価  [in Japanese] SENSITIVITY OF STORM SURGE HEIGHT AND INUNDATION AREA ON CLIMATE CHANGE IN OSAKA BAY  [in Japanese]

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Abstract

地球温暖化による様々な沿岸外力の変化(海面上昇や波浪特性の変化,台風特性の変化など)に伴う様々な影響評価が行われている.本研究では,第二室戸台風を基準として台風の将来変化に伴う大阪湾を対象とした高潮災害の感度評価を行い,その再現期間を推定した.台風経路を変化させ,最悪経路の算出を行った後,最悪経路および台風強度の増加による高潮偏差と浸水範囲の算定を行った.さらに,確率台風モデルを用いて,最大クラス群の台風の再現期間を推定した.その結果,第二室戸台風が大阪港にとって最も危険な経路を通過した場合,第二室戸台風より高潮偏差が1.3 m高く,その経路の再現期間は21年であることが示された.また,最悪経路を通り,将来台風の強度が増大した場合,淀川流域以外で浸水し,さらに海面上昇が加わると,大阪市一帯も浸水する結果が得られた.

 Impact of climate change on tropical cyclones has been assessed for coastal disasters. In this study, we have carried out a sensitivity tests of storm surge simulations to climate change considering typhoon characteristics and sea level rises in the Osaka bay. The results indicated that the maximum surge height with the worst track is 1.0m higher than the 2<sup>nd</sup> Typhoon Muroto maximum surge height with the 2<sup>nd</sup> Muroto track. There are less flooding compared to that of the original track, but the the inundation area is increased signifisantly under the future climate condition. The changes of inundation area due to climate change will be increased about 160 % in comparison with historical run. In addition, we estimated its return period as 21 years based on stochastic tropical cyclone model.

Journal

  • Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering)

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering) 72(2), I_217-I_222, 2016

    Japan Society of Civil Engineers

Codes

  • NII Article ID (NAID)
    130005282338
  • Text Lang
    JPN
  • ISSN
    1884-2399
  • NDL Article ID
    027808165
  • NDL Call No.
    YH267-236
  • Data Source
    NDL  J-STAGE 
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