Bias correction of simulated storm surge height considering coastline complexity

• Yang Jung-A

  Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University

• Kim Sooyoul

  Graduate School of Engineering, Tottori University

• Mori Nobuhito

  Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University

• Mase Hajime

  Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University

抄録

In this study, we propose a new approach for model validation that can be applied to the projection of possible future storm surge heights (SSHs) on the regional scale. First, this study conducts a series of SSHs for the southeastern coast of the Korean Peninsula (KP) by six typhoons that produced SSHs over 1.0 m since 1979 and identifies the bias between simulated and observed SSHs. Next, formulas for the bias correction using a geographic parameter, in particular the coastline complexity factors, are drawn and validated. Finally, the effect of the proposed bias correction on projection of future SSHs is examined by performing simple tests to consider only central pressure drops to reflect the impact of climate change. It can be seen that the bias correction method considering the coastline complexity can improve the model’s accuracy by 14% to 23% and prevent potential overestimation by up to 20% of the maximum SSHs considering climate change effect on the southeastern coast of the KP.

収録刊行物

• Hydrological Research Letters

  Hydrological Research Letters 11 (2), 121-127, 2017

  水文・水資源学会／日本地下水学会／日本水文科学会／陸水物理研究会

キーワード

• Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)
• Water Science and Technology

詳細情報

• CRID: 1390282680267432064
• NII論文ID: 130005679723
• DOI: 10.3178/hrl.11.121
• ISSN: 18823416
• Web Site: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/hrl/11/2/11_121/_pdf
• 本文言語コード: ja
• データソース種別:
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