Evaluation of control measures for bovine viral diarrhea implemented in Nemuro District, Hokkaido, Japan, using a scenario tree model
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- ISODA Norikazu
- Unit of Risk Analysis and Management, Research Center for Zoonosis Control, Hokkaido University, Kita 20, Nishi 10, Kita-ku, Sapporo, Hokkaido 001-0020, Japan Global Station for Zoonosis Control, Global Institute for Collaborative Research and Education (GI-CoRE), Hokkaido University, Kita 20, Nishi 10, Kita-ku, Sapporo, Hokkaido 001-0020, Japan
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- ASANO Akihiro
- Hokkaido Nemuro Livestock Hygiene Service Center, 69, Betsukai-Midorimachi, Betsukai, Notsuke-gun, Hokkaido 086-0214, Japan
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- ICHIJO Michiru
- Hokkaido Nemuro Livestock Hygiene Service Center, 69, Betsukai-Midorimachi, Betsukai, Notsuke-gun, Hokkaido 086-0214, Japan
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- WAKAMORI Shiho
- Laboratory of Microbiology, Graduate School of Veterinary Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 18, Nishi 9, Kita-ku, Sapporo, Hokkaido 060-0018, Japan
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- OHNO Hiroshi
- Hokkaido Veterinary Medical Association Nemuro Branch, 119, Betsukai-Midorimachi, Betsukai, Notsuke-gun, Hokkaido 086-0292, Japan
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- SATO Kazuhiko
- Western Nemuro Operation Center, Hokkaido Higashi Agricultural Mutual Aid Association, 109, Nishi-Syunbetsu, Betsukai, Notsuke-gun, Hokkaido 088-2576, Japan
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- OKAMOTO Hirokazu
- Northern Nemuro Operation Center, Hokkaido Higashi Agricultural Mutual Aid Association, 37, Tawara-bashi 14, Naka-shibetsu, Sibetsu-gun, Hokkaido 086-1137, Japan
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- NAKAO Shigeru
- Southern Nemuro Operation Center, Hokkaido Higashi Agricultural Mutual Aid Association, 119, Betsukai-Midorimachi, Betsukai, Notsuke-gun, Hokkaido 086-0292, Japan
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- KATO Hajime
- Southern Nemuro Operation Center, Hokkaido Higashi Agricultural Mutual Aid Association, 119, Betsukai-Midorimachi, Betsukai, Notsuke-gun, Hokkaido 086-0292, Japan
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- SAITO Kazuma
- Betsukai Town Office, 280, Betsukai-Tokiwa, Betsukai, Notsuke-gun, Hokkaido 086-0205, Japan
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- ITO Naoki
- The Federation of Agricultural Cooperatives in Nemuro, 2, Higashi 1, Minami 1, Nakashibetsu, Sibetsu-gun, Hokkaido 086-1006, Japan
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- USUI Akira
- Hokkaido Veterinary Medical Association Nemuro Branch, 119, Betsukai-Midorimachi, Betsukai, Notsuke-gun, Hokkaido 086-0292, Japan
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- TAKAYAMA Hiroaki
- Hokkaido Nemuro Livestock Hygiene Service Center, 69, Betsukai-Midorimachi, Betsukai, Notsuke-gun, Hokkaido 086-0214, Japan
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- SAKODA Yoshihiro
- Global Station for Zoonosis Control, Global Institute for Collaborative Research and Education (GI-CoRE), Hokkaido University, Kita 20, Nishi 10, Kita-ku, Sapporo, Hokkaido 001-0020, Japan Laboratory of Microbiology, Graduate School of Veterinary Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 18, Nishi 9, Kita-ku, Sapporo, Hokkaido 060-0018, Japan
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抄録
<p>A scenario tree model was developed to propose efficient bovine viral diarrhea (BVD) control measures. The model used field data in eastern Hokkaido where the risk of BVDV infection in cattle has been reduced by an eradication program including mass vaccination, individual tests prior to communal pasture grazing, herd screening tests using bulk milk, and outbreak investigations of newly infected herds. These four activities were then used as hypothesized control measures in the simulation. In each simulation, the numbers of cattle infected persistently and transiently with BVDV detected by clinical manifestations and diagnosis tests and of missed by all of the diagnosis tests were calculated, and the numbers were used as indicators to be compared for the efficacy of the control measures. The model outputs indicated that the adoption of mass vaccination decreased the number of missed BVD cattle, although it did not increase the number of detected BVD cattle. Under implementation of mass vaccination, the efficacy of individual tests on selected 20% of the young and adult cattle was equal to that of the herd screening test performed in all the herds. When the virus prevalence or the number of sensitive animals becomes low, the efficacy of herd screening test was superior to one of individual tests. Considering the model outputs together, the scenario tree model developed in the present study was useful to compare the efficacy of the control measures for BVD.</p>
収録刊行物
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- Ｔｈｅ Ｊｏｕｒｎａｌ ｏｆ Ｖｅｔｅｒｉｎａｒｙ Ｍｅｄｉｃａｌ Ｓｃｉｅｎｃｅ
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Ｔｈｅ Ｊｏｕｒｎａｌ ｏｆ Ｖｅｔｅｒｉｎａｒｙ Ｍｅｄｉｃａｌ Ｓｃｉｅｎｃｅ 79 (7), 1172-1181, 2017
公益社団法人 日本獣医学会