階層ベイズモデルを用いた地震火災の出火件数予測手法とその応用

• 廣井 悠

  名古屋大学減災連携研究センター

書誌事項

タイトル別名

• Post-Earthquake Fire Estimation Method using Hierarchical Bayesian Models and its Application<i> </i>
• カイソウ ベイズモデル オ モチイタ ジシン カサイ ノ シュッカ ケンスウ ヨソク シュホウ ト ソノ オウヨウ
• Post‐earthquake fire estimation method using hierarchical Bayesian models and its application

抄録

In this paper, we discuss our estimation methods for the number of ignition fires after a great earthquake. In the Great East-Japan Earthquake, occurred on March 11 2011, 404 fires happened in Eastern Japan area. We proposed three types statistical models (Generalized Linear Model, Generalized Linear Mixed Model and Hierarchical Bayesian Models) and estimated their parameters using Maximum Likelihood Estimation or Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods. And, we calculated several risk maps for post-earthquake fires. For example, according to Population Exposure to Earthquake Fires, people in Tokyo, Kawasaki and Osaka have extremely high ignition risk after a great earthquake. Finally, we proposed realtime estimation method for the number of post-earthquake fire using these statistical models.

収録刊行物

• 地域安全学会論文集

  地域安全学会論文集 27 (0), 303-311, 2015

  一般社団法人 地域安全学会

キーワード

• <i>Post-Earthquake Fire</i><i>s</i>
• <i>Great East-Japan Earthquake</i>
• <i> Bayesian Statistical Model</i><i> </i>

詳細情報

• CRID: 1390282680486640128
• NII論文ID: 130005893200
• NII書誌ID: AA11542656
• DOI: 10.11314/jisss.27.303
• ISSN: 21879842
• ISSN: 13452088
• NDL書誌ID: 028728741
• Web Site: https://ndlsearch.ndl.go.jp/books/R000000004-I028728741
• 本文言語コード: ja
• データソース種別:
  • JaLC
  • NDL
  • CiNii Articles
  • KAKEN
  • Crossref
• 抄録ライセンスフラグ: 使用不可