Post-Earthquake Fire Estimation Method using Hierarchical Bayesian Models and its Application<i> </i>

• HIROI U

  Disaster Mitigation Research Center, Nagoya University

Bibliographic Information

Other Title

• 階層ベイズモデルを用いた地震火災の出火件数予測手法とその応用
• カイソウ ベイズモデル オ モチイタ ジシン カサイ ノ シュッカ ケンスウ ヨソク シュホウ ト ソノ オウヨウ
• Post‐earthquake fire estimation method using hierarchical Bayesian models and its application

Abstract

In this paper, we discuss our estimation methods for the number of ignition fires after a great earthquake. In the Great East-Japan Earthquake, occurred on March 11 2011, 404 fires happened in Eastern Japan area. We proposed three types statistical models (Generalized Linear Model, Generalized Linear Mixed Model and Hierarchical Bayesian Models) and estimated their parameters using Maximum Likelihood Estimation or Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods. And, we calculated several risk maps for post-earthquake fires. For example, according to Population Exposure to Earthquake Fires, people in Tokyo, Kawasaki and Osaka have extremely high ignition risk after a great earthquake. Finally, we proposed realtime estimation method for the number of post-earthquake fire using these statistical models.

Journal

• Journal of Social Safety Science

  Journal of Social Safety Science 27 (0), 303-311, 2015

  Institute of Social Safety Science

Keywords

• <i>Post-Earthquake Fire</i><i>s</i>
• <i>Great East-Japan Earthquake</i>
• Bayesian Statistical Model<i> </i>

Details

• CRID: 1390282680486640128
• NII Article ID: 130005893200
• NII Book ID: AA11542656
• DOI: 10.11314/jisss.27.303
• ISSN: 21879842
• ISSN: 13452088
• NDL BIB ID: 028728741
• Web Site: http://id.ndl.go.jp/bib/028728741
• Web Site: https://ndlsearch.ndl.go.jp/books/R000000004-I028728741
• Text Lang: ja
• Data Source:
  • JaLC
  • NDL
  • CiNii Articles
  • KAKEN
  • Crossref
• Abstract License Flag: Disallowed