海面気圧の主成分を考慮した統計的波高推定法の高度化と波高の将来変化予測  [in Japanese] IMPROVEMENT OF STATISTICAL MODELING OF WAVE HEIGHTS CONSIDERING PRINCIPAL COMPONENT ANALYSIS OF SEA LEVEL PRESSURES AND ITS APPLICATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION  [in Japanese]

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Abstract

全球と日本近海を対象として,大気場の情報から平均波高を予測する統計的波高推定手法を開発した.局所的な大気データに加えて,広域の大気場情報として海面更正気圧の時空間変動の主成分を入力データに用いることによって,うねりが支配的な海域において精度が向上した.統計モデルを,気候予測実験の結果に適用し,将来の平均波高を推定し,波高変化量を計算した.主な将来変化としては,全球では北太平洋北部で増加,北大西洋,赤道の北側で有意な波高減少が見られた.日本近海では,北海道・東北地方周辺で波高増加,それ以外の海域では波高減少傾向が予測された.低位のRCP2.6,4.5シナリオでは日本海北側で波高増加が見られるものの,シナリオが高位になると変化の南限が北上し,日本周辺の広範囲で波高減少を示すことがわかった.

 Future wave climate projection is important for climate impact assessment of the coastal environment and hazards. In this study, the monthly averaged wave heights are estimated by a linear multi-regression model with atmospheric data as explanatory variables. The present statistical model considers the local atmospheric information (wind speed at 10 m height, sea level pressure) and the large scale atmospheric information obtained by the principal component analysis (PCA) of the global sea level pressure field. The representation of swell in the lower latitude is greatly improved by introducing the large scale atmospheric information from the PCA. The present statistical model was applied to the results of Japan Meteorological Research Institute's Atmospheric General/Global Circulation Model (MRI-AGCM) climate change projection. The future change of wave heights shows the increase in the northern North Pacific Ocean and the decrease in the North Atlantic Ocean, middle latitude and tropics of the Pacific Ocean.

Journal

  • Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering)

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering) 73(2), I_1411-I_1416, 2017

    Japan Society of Civil Engineers

Codes

  • NII Article ID (NAID)
    130006171803
  • Text Lang
    JPN
  • ISSN
    1884-2399
  • NDL Article ID
    028756810
  • NDL Call No.
    YH267-236
  • Data Source
    NDL  J-STAGE 
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