波浪データを用いた係留限界の二段階予測による短距離フェリーの最適運航  [in Japanese] OPTIMAL ROUTING WITH TWO-STEP PREDICTION OF MOORING CRITERIA  [in Japanese]

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Abstract

港内静穏度は係留船舶の長周期動揺により評価する必要性が示されるもののほとんど実現していない.航海時間が1時間に満たない短距離航路の場合,停泊時間の方が長く港内係留時の安全性から見た最適運航が必要と思われる.本研究では沖縄県の離島フェリーを対象に運航困難となる台風パターンを整理し,両港内にて波浪を連続計測した結果を分析した.この結果,長周期波の存在が明らかとなり,1時間先の周期帯別波高に対する一段階目の重回帰予測式を構築した.つぎにフェリーの船体動揺を数値シミュレーションにて再現し,これと周期帯別の波高を説明変数としたsurgeおよびswayを推定する二段階予測式を構築した.2015年度のデータをもとに構築した予測式を2016年度のデータに適用し係留限界を1時間先予測した結果,85~93%の確率で予測可能であることを示した.

 It is inevitalble to maintain safe area inside harbor for ships. However, many ports still have operational difficulty related on moored ship motions. This study aims to contribute for the optimal ship routing from viewpoint of mooring criteria. The correlation coefficients are 0.75-0.9 between 1-hour ahead predicted and measured wave heights. Suspensions of ferry service are accurately simulated here. The two-step prediction of mooring criteria consists of these parts, and enables to estimate ship motions of moored ferry in the ports in Okinawa 1 hour ahead. The strike ratio of prediction is 85-93% for 33 days that the ferry service were canceled in 2016. It is expected to contribute as the optimal routing of short-distance ferry, and does not require big investiments of building breakwaters or new mooring facilities.

Journal

  • Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering)

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering) 73(2), I_1459-I_1464, 2017

    Japan Society of Civil Engineers

Codes

  • NII Article ID (NAID)
    130006171809
  • Text Lang
    JPN
  • ISSN
    1884-2399
  • NDL Article ID
    028756910
  • NDL Call No.
    YH267-236
  • Data Source
    NDL  J-STAGE 
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