Stochastic Modeling of Epidemic Spreading under Random Fluctuations and Simulation Analyses of Traveling Waves

• Ishikawa Masaaki

  Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Yamaguchi University

抄録

Epidemics such as the bird flue is still a menace to mankind. Especially, rabies is a viral zoonotic disease that causes acute encephalitis in mammals: more than 50000 people a year have died by rabies. Analyses of geographic spread of such epidemics are essential to contrive a plan to prevent it from going around. In this paper, noting that the infection rate of rabies contains the random fluctuations caused by the change of the environmental situation and considering the threshold from the biological reason, the stochastic model of rabies spreading with the infection rate of a saturation type is proposed. Using the proposed stochastic model, behaviors of rabies spreading and its spreading speed are studied by numerical simulations. The influence of the random fluctuations in the infection rate and the threshold on the rabies spreading is also analyzed.

収録刊行物

• Proceedings of the ISCIE International Symposium on Stochastic Systems Theory and its Applications

  Proceedings of the ISCIE International Symposium on Stochastic Systems Theory and its Applications 2008 (0), 61-66, 2008-05-05

  システム制御情報学会ストカスティックシステムシンポジウム

キーワード

• Materials Science (miscellaneous)

詳細情報

• CRID: 1390001288033763968
• NII論文ID: 130007377157
• DOI: 10.5687/sss.2008.61
• ISSN: 21884749
• ISSN: 21884730
• Web Site: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/sss/2008/0/2008_61/_pdf
• 本文言語コード: en
• データソース種別:
  • JaLC
  • Crossref
  • CiNii Articles
• 抄録ライセンスフラグ: 使用不可