Analysis and Forecast Using Dropsonde Data from the Inner-Core Region of Tropical Cyclone Lan (2017) Obtained during the First Aircraft Missions of T-PARCII

• Ito Kosuke

  University of the Ryukyus Meteorological Research Institute Japan Agency for Marine–Earth Science and Technology

• Yamada Hiroyuki

  University of the Ryukyus

• Yamaguchi Munehiko

  Meteorological Research Institute

• Nakazawa Tetsuo

  Meteorological Research Institute

• Nagahama Norio

  Meisei Electric Co., LTD.

• Shimizu Kensaku

  Meisei Electric Co., LTD.

• Ohigashi Tadayasu

  National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience

• Shinoda Taro

  Nagoya University

• Tsuboki Kazuhisa

  Nagoya University

Abstract

The inner core of Tropical Cyclone Lan was observed on 21-22 October 2017 by GPS dropsondes during the first aircraft missions of the Tropical Cyclones-Pacific Asian Research Campaign for the Improvement of Intensity Estimations/Forecasts (T-PARCII). To evaluate the impact of dropsondes on forecast skill, 12 36-h forecasts were conducted using a Japan Meteorological Agency non-hydrostatic model (JMA-NHM) with a JMA-NHM-based mesoscale four-dimensional data assimilation (DA) system. Track forecast skill improved over all forecast times with the assimilation of the dropsonde data. The improvement rate was 8-16% for 27-36-h forecasts. Minimum sea level pressure (Pmin) forecasts were generally degenerated (improved) for relatively short-term (long-term) forecasts by adding the dropsonde data, and maximum wind speed (Vmax) forecasts were degenerated. Some of the changes in the track and Vmax forecasts were statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. It is notable that the dropsonde-derived estimate of Pmin was closer to the real-time analysis by the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) Tokyo than the RSMC Tokyo best track analysis. The degeneration in intensity forecast skill due to uncertainties in the best track data is discussed.

Journal

• SOLA

  SOLA 14 (0), 105-110, 2018

  Meteorological Society of Japan

Keywords

• Atmospheric Science

Details

• CRID: 1390001288047716992
• NII Article ID: 130007420499
• DOI: 10.2151/sola.2018-018
• ISSN: 13496476
• Web Site: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/sola/14/0/14_2018-018/_pdf
• Text Lang: en
• Data Source:
  • JaLC
  • Crossref
  • CiNii Articles
  • KAKEN
• Abstract License Flag: Disallowed