PROPOSAL OF AN EMPIRICAL EQUATION FOR STORM SURGES EMPLOYING A STOCHASTIC TYPHOON MODEL IN THE SEA OF AKI AND IYO-NADA

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  • 確率台風モデルを援用した安芸灘・伊予灘における高潮簡易予測式の提案
  • カクリツ タイフウ モデル オ エンヨウ シタ アキナダ ・ イヨナダ ニ オケル タカシオ カンイ ヨソクシキ ノ テイアン

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Abstract

 Recently, the climate has become extreme by the influence of global warming, and frequency of strong typhoon attack is getting increase. Particularly, storm surge disasters are influenced by intensified typhoons. The number of observations of storm surges are limited and insufficient because hazardous storm surges are low-frequency events. It is difficult to assess the probability of storm surges only based on observation data. This study simulates storm surges employing a stochastic typhoon model and a non-linear shallow water model, and proposes an empirical equation. Analysis assesses the effect of the number of data and the typhoon route on estimation accuracy by a proposed empirical equation targeting in Hiroshima (Aki-nada sea) and Matsuyama (Iyo-nada sea). As a result, errors and variations are reduced and the accuracy can be improved by increasing the number of data. Also, even if tropical cyclones have the same scale, storm surge are different by the difference of routes, which are dangerous semicircle and navigable semicircle. If compute the coefficient after classifying the routes, the proposed method can estimate storm surges of high accuracy at any locations.

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