STORM SURGE SIMULATION IN THE TOKYO BAY UNDER FUTURE CLIMATE CONDITIONS USING PSEUDO GLOBAL WARMING METHOD
-
- TANIGUCHI Kenji
- 金沢大学 理工研究域
-
- SANUKI Hiroshi
- 五洋建設株式会社 技術研究所
-
- SHIBUO Yoshihiro
- 国立研究開発法人土木研究所
-
- TAJIMA Yoshimitsu
- 東京大学大学院 工学系研究科
Bibliographic Information
- Other Title
-
- 擬似温暖化手法とアンサンブルシミュレーションによる東京湾における高潮推算
- ギジ オンダンカ シュホウ ト アンサンブルシミュレーション ニ ヨル トウキョウワン ニ オケル タカシオ スイサン
Search this article
Abstract
Under the future global warming conditions, intensification of typhoons are assumed and future variations of storm surge driven by a typhoon are assessed. In this study, a combined technique of ensemble numerical weather simulation and pseudo global warming method using multiple global climate model output was applied to the typhoon No. 18 in 1991. At the same time, being forced by the weather simulation results, storm surge simulations for the Tokyo Bay were implemented. Decreasing tendency of surface pressure were found in multiple future climate conditions. On the other hand, the maximum surface wind speed showed scatter tendency of future variations. Storm surge simulations showed significant increase in storm surge in three in five future conditions. Two future climate conditions with small variations in storm surge showed significant decrease of the maximum wind speed. These results indicate variations of wind speed have larger impact on storm surge in the Tokyo Bay than pressure.
Journal
-
- Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering)
-
Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering) 74 (2), I_613-I_618, 2018
Japan Society of Civil Engineers
