難民の分担をめぐる欧州諸国の世論分析

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タイトル別名
  • Europeans’ Attitudes towards Sharing Asylum-Seekers: An Analysis of the Effects of Euroscepticism
  • 難民の分担をめぐる欧州諸国の世論分析 : 欧州懐疑要因の検討
  • ナンミン ノ ブンタン オ メグル オウシュウ ショコク ノ ヨロン ブンセキ : オウシュウ カイギ ヨウイン ノ ケントウ
  • ―欧州懐疑要因の検討―

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<p>During the 2010s, due to the political upheaval in the regions of the Middle East and North Africa, an unprecedented number of asylum seekers flooded into European countries. As part of its response, the European Union (EU) laid out a burden-sharing scheme, which would relocate asylum seekers concentrated in Greece and Italy to other EU member states. There is substantial variation in the level of popular support for such a burden-sharing scheme, among countries and individuals.</p><p>Why is there such a difference? We present two hypotheses to explain the difference. First, we predict that those with more trust in the EU are more likely than those with less trust to support the sharing scheme. Second, we also expect that in countries that have accepted a large number of refugees, the level of opposition to the sharing scheme might be mitigated among Eurosceptics, whereas in countries having accepted fewer refugees, the level of opposition might be strengthened among Eurosceptics.</p><p>To empirically examine these two hypotheses, using raw data from Eurobarometer 84.1, we conducted a multivariate regression analysis. The quantitative analysis gave empirical support to the two hypotheses. It showed that the level of individual Eurosceptic feelings had effects of decreasing their support level for sharing refugees. It also found the interaction effect such that the level of opposition among those with Eurosceptic views was diluted in countries with a large population ratio of refugees.</p><p>Our case studies on the Netherlands and Poland, which have been conducted following the quantitative analysis, uncovered the causal paths through which those two Eurosceptic factors influenced the public attitudes. The main findings are twofold. First, in both countries, it was found that anti-EU and anti-Muslim immigrants (or refugees) feelings have gone hand in hand together in political debates surrounding the refugee-sharing scheme, which led to the increase in the opposition level among those with Eurosceptic views. Second, there were some Dutch Eurosceptics who did not feel resistant to the EU scheme, with the considerations that the EU’s asylum policy has long alleviated the asylum burden on their country. By contrast, there were many Polish Eurosceptics who were strongly resistant to it, seeing the EU’s decision as imposition of Muslim asylum-seekers, whom they have not had enough experience of accepting in their societies. These findings suggest that in order to increase the level of popular support for sharing refugees, European states address the problem of political distrust in the EU.</p>

収録刊行物

  • 国際政治

    国際政治 2018 (190), 190_49-190_64, 2018-01-25

    一般財団法人 日本国際政治学会

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