集積の経済を考慮した空間応用一般均衡分析:道路整備時期が人口分布に与える影響  [in Japanese] Spatial computable general equilibrium analysis considering agglomeration economies: The timing of road development and the population distribution  [in Japanese]

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Abstract

<p>本研究の目的は,交通基盤の整備時期が経済活動・人口の空間的集積現象に与える影響を評価できる空間応用一般均衡(SCGE) 分析枠組みを構築することである.そのために,高山ら<sup>1) </sup>が開発した集積の経済と人口移動を考慮した SCGE モデルを,道路整備の時期が人口分布に与える影響を分析できる枠組みに改良した.そして,1986 年から 2005 年の道路整備を対象に,道路整備のタイミングが大幅に異なる,以下の 2 種類の反実仮想実験を実施した: 1) 道路整備水準(i.e., 地域間の所要時間) を 5 年間隔で変化させる場合,2) 道路整備水準を一度に変化させる場合.そして,それらの結果が大幅に異なり,開発した分析枠組が道路整備時期の影響を表現できることを明らかにした.</p>

<p>The purpose of this paper is to develop a spatial computable general equilibrium (SCGE) model that is capable of analyzing the effect of the timing of road development on the population distribution. To this end, we extended the SCGE model developed by Takayama et al.<sup>1) </sup>("Development of a spatial computable general equilibrium model with factor mobility and agglomeration economies," Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3, Vol. 72, No. 2, pp. 211-230, 2016) to represent the transportation network in Japan. We then conducted the following two types of counterfactural analyses that replicate the road development from 1986 to 2005: 1) a case where the interregional distance is gradually changed at 5-year intervals, 2) a case where the interregional distance is changed at once. Finally, we showed that the results of these analyses are signi?cantly different, which implies that our framework is capable of representing the effect of the timing of road development on the population distribution.</p>

Journal

  • JSTE Journal of Traffic Engineering

    JSTE Journal of Traffic Engineering 5(2), A_223-A_232, 2019

    Japan Society of Traffic Engineers

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