Comparison of Mortality Prediction Models on Long-Term Mortality in Hospitalized Patients With Acute Heart Failure ― The Importance of Accounting for Nutritional Status ―
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- Nakano Hiroki
- Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Center for Cerebral and Cardiovascular Disease Information, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center Department of Cardiology, Tokyo Medical University
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- Omote Kazunori
- Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University
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- Nagai Toshiyuki
- Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Center for Cerebral and Cardiovascular Disease Information, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College London
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- Nakai Michikazu
- Department of Statistics and Data Analysis, Center for Cerebral and Cardiovascular Disease Information, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center
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- Nishimura Kunihiro
- Department of Statistics and Data Analysis, Center for Cerebral and Cardiovascular Disease Information, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center
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- Honda Yasuyuki
- Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Center for Cerebral and Cardiovascular Disease Information, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center
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- Honda Satoshi
- Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Center for Cerebral and Cardiovascular Disease Information, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center
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- Iwakami Naotsugu
- Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Center for Cerebral and Cardiovascular Disease Information, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center
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- Sugano Yasuo
- Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Center for Cerebral and Cardiovascular Disease Information, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center
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- Asaumi Yasuhide
- Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Center for Cerebral and Cardiovascular Disease Information, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center
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- Aiba Takeshi
- Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Center for Cerebral and Cardiovascular Disease Information, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center
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- Noguchi Teruo
- Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Center for Cerebral and Cardiovascular Disease Information, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center
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- Kusano Kengo
- Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Center for Cerebral and Cardiovascular Disease Information, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center
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- Yokoyama Hiroyuki
- Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Center for Cerebral and Cardiovascular Disease Information, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center
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- Yasuda Satoshi
- Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Center for Cerebral and Cardiovascular Disease Information, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center
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- Ogawa Hisao
- Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Center for Cerebral and Cardiovascular Disease Information, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center
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- Chikamori Taishiro
- Department of Cardiology, Tokyo Medical University
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- Anzai Toshihisa
- Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Center for Cerebral and Cardiovascular Disease Information, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University
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Abstract
<p>Background: The ideal mortality prediction model (MPM) for acute heart failure (AHF) patients would have sufficient and stable predictive ability for long-term as well as short-term mortality. However, published MPMs for AHF predominantly predict short-term mortality up to 90 days, and their prognostic performance for long-term mortality remains unclear. </p><p>Methods and Results: We analyzed 609 AHF patients in a prospective registry from January 2013 to May 2016. We compared the prognostic performance for long-term mortality among 8 systematically identified MPMs for AHF that predict short-term mortality up to 90 days from admission. The PROTECT 7-day model showed the highest c-index for long-term as well as short-term mortality among the studied MPMs. Sensitivity analyses revealed serum albumin and total cholesterol to be the most important variables, as dropping these variables resulted in a significant decline in c-index, when compared with other variables specific to the PROTECT 7-day model. Furthermore, significant improvements in c-index and net reclassification were observed when serum albumin or serum albumin plus total cholesterol was added to the studied MPMs, other than the PROTECT 7-day model. </p><p>Conclusions: The PROTECT 7-day model demonstrated the highest predictive performance for long-term as well as short-term mortality in AHF patients among the published MPMs. Our findings indicate the importance of accounting for nutritional status such as serum albumin and total cholesterol in AHF patients when developing a MPM. </p>
Journal
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- Circulation Journal
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Circulation Journal 83 (3), 614-621, 2019-02-25
The Japanese Circulation Society
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Details 詳細情報について
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- CRID
- 1390845713053842560
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- NII Article ID
- 130007604358
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- NII Book ID
- AA11591968
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- ISSN
- 13474820
- 13469843
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- NDL BIB ID
- 029537827
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- PubMed
- 30700666
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- Text Lang
- en
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- Data Source
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- JaLC
- NDL
- Crossref
- PubMed
- CiNii Articles
- KAKEN
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- Abstract License Flag
- Disallowed