A Dynamic Programming Algorithm for Optimizing Baseball Strategies A DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING ALGORITHM FOR OPTIMIZING BASEBALL STRATEGIES

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Abstract

In this paper, baseball is formulated as a finite non-zero-sum Markov game with approximately 6.45 million states. We give an effective dynamic programming algorithm which computes equilibrium strategies and the equilibrium winning percentages for both teams in less than 2 second per game. Optimal decision making can be found depending on the situation—for example, for the batting team, whether batting for a hit, stealing a base or sacrifice bunting will maximize their win percentage, or for the fielding team, whether to pitch to or intentionally walk a batter, yields optimal results. Based on this model, we discuss whether the last-batting team has an advantage. In addition, we compute the optimal batting order, in consideration of the decision making in a game.

<p>In this paper, baseball is formulated as a finite non-zero-sum Markov game with approximately 6.45 million states. We give an effective dynamic programming algorithm which computes equilibrium strategies and the equilibrium winning percentages for both teams in less than 2 second per game. Optimal decision making can be found depending on the situation—for example, for the batting team, whether batting for a hit, stealing a base or sacrifice bunting will maximize their win percentage, or for the fielding team, whether to pitch to or intentionally walk a batter, yields optimal results. Based on this model, we discuss whether the last-batting team has an advantage. In addition, we compute the optimal batting order, in consideration of the decision making in a game.</p>

Journal

  • Journal of the Operations Research Society of Japan

    Journal of the Operations Research Society of Japan 62(2), 64-82, 2019

    The Operations Research Society of Japan

Codes

  • NII Article ID (NAID)
    130007636494
  • NII NACSIS-CAT ID (NCID)
    AA00703935
  • Text Lang
    ENG
  • Article Type
    journal article
  • ISSN
    0453-4514
  • NDL Article ID
    029632872
  • NDL Call No.
    Z53-M226
  • Data Source
    NDL  IR  J-STAGE 
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