Post-Project Evaluation of the Demand Forecast for a New Transit System

• MORIKAWA Takayuki

  名古屋大学大学院環境学研究科都市環境学専攻

• NAGAMATSU Yoshitaka

  名古屋大学大学院環境学研究科都市環境学専攻

• SANKO Nobuhiro

  名古屋大学大学院環境学研究科都市環境学専攻

Bibliographic Information

Other Title

• 新交通システム需要予測の事後評価
• 新交通システム需要予測の事後評価--ピーチライナーを例として
• シンコウツウ システム ジュヨウ ヨソク ノ ジゴ ヒョウカ ピーチライナー オ レイ ト シテ
• －ピーチライナーを例として－

Abstract

Methods of demand forecast for a new transit system, Tokadai Peachliner, are evaluated. The ridership originally predicted by the authority using 4 step method is 31,000 passengers/day in 1991, which resulted in the overprediction of 15 times. We found that the authority overestimated 1.7 times larger at the 'trip generation' stage and 7 times at the 'modal split' stage. We also found that the disaggregate modeling approach could better reach the observed value when the competing JR line and socio-economic variables are well considered.

Journal

• Transport Policy Studies' Review

  Transport Policy Studies' Review 7 (2), 020-029, 2004-07-30

  Japan Transport and Tourism Research Institute

Keywords

• demand forecast
• post-project evaluation
• 4 step method
• modal split curve
• disaggregate model

Details

• CRID: 1390845713073935360
• NII Article ID: 130007656238
• NII Book ID: AA11287548
• DOI: 10.24639/tpsr.tpsr_7r_08
• ISSN: 24337366
• ISSN: 13443348
• NDL BIB ID: 7062093
• Web Site: http://id.ndl.go.jp/bib/7062093
• Web Site: https://ndlsearch.ndl.go.jp/books/R000000004-I7062093
• Text Lang: ja
• Data Source:
  • JaLC
  • NDL
  • CiNii Articles
  • KAKEN
• Abstract License Flag: Disallowed