津波土砂移動数値解析の不確実性と地形復元について  [in Japanese] On tsunami sediment transport modeling and uncertainties  [in Japanese]

Access this Article

Search this Article

Author(s)

Abstract

<p>津波土砂移動数値解析は,津波による侵食・堆積現象を理解するための強力なツールであり,今後,古津波の規模や波源推定などに適用が進むと期待される.古津波の土砂移動数値解析では,現世の津波の事例にも増して,入力データ(初期条件)による不確実性に注意する必要がある.不確実性は,解析結果と津波堆積物データとの比較を困難にする.津波土砂移動解析の初期条件は,地形,植生,堆積物,海面高の4つに区分できる.古津波の場合,これらの初期条件について確実な推定を行うことは極めて難しい.古津波の研究に土砂移動数値解析を有効に活用していくには,不確実性評価の枠組みを整理するとともに,長期的な地形発達や環境変化や,海流や気象の年・季節変動による海浜地形の変化,さらには人為的な地形改変の履歴などについてより多くの情報を蓄積し,可能な限り不確実性を縮減する必要があると考えられる.</p>

<p>Numerical modeling of tsunami sediment transport is a powerful tool to understand tsunami-induced sediment erosion and deposition. Application of the modeling to paleotsunamis will improve our ability for assessing hazards from earthquakes and tsunamis. Assessment of uncertainties due to incomplete inputs will be an inevitable challenge in the sediment transport modeling of paleotsunamis. Uncertainties from various factors, such as paleo-topography, vegetation, sediment source and tide level, will inhibit systematic comparison of the modeling results and field data, and will obscure the picture of the earthquake and tsunami. Datasets of long-term change in coastal environment, annual and seasonal variation of beach topography and anthropogenic modification of the landscape, as well as framework for quantitative assessment of the uncertainties, will be the keys for effective application of sediment transport modeling to paleotsunamis.</p>

Journal

  • The Quaternary Research (Daiyonki-Kenkyu)

    The Quaternary Research (Daiyonki-Kenkyu) 58(2), 187-194, 2019

    Japan Association for Quaternary Research

Codes

  • NII Article ID (NAID)
    130007659511
  • NII NACSIS-CAT ID (NCID)
    AN0034136X
  • Text Lang
    JPN
  • ISSN
    0418-2642
  • NDL Article ID
    029655485
  • NDL Call No.
    Z15-67
  • Data Source
    NDL  J-STAGE 
Page Top