Demand Modeling for Widespread Temporary Housing following the Anticipated Tokyo Metropolitan Earthquake

  • SATO Keiichi
    School of Network and Information, Senshu University
  • ICHIKO Taro
    Faculty of Urban Enviromental Sciences, Tokyo Metropolitan University
  • NAKABAYASHI Itsuki
    Organization for Strategic Co-ordination of Research and Intellectual Properties, Meiji University

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Other Title
  • 想定首都直下地震後の中長期的な広域避難の需要予測モデル
  • ソウテイ シュト チョッカ ジシン ゴ ノ チュウチョウキテキ ナ コウイキ ヒナン ノ ジュヨウ ヨソク モデル

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Abstract

<p>The headquarter of earthquake research promotion has pointed out that the occurrence probability of the anticipated Tokyo metropolitan earthquake is high, and the cabinet office has released the damage assessments of the earthquake. In case of the anticipated Tokyo, 610,000 complete collapse buildings were expected. Countermeasure to the widespread evacuation is becoming a realistic policy concern. In order to make preliminaly considerations, micro simulation will be useful information. To construct reliable simulation, we developed household's discrete choice model of temporary housing using the data from internet-based questionnaire system. According to the constructed model, the choice probabilities came to be able to calculate in all conditions such as household's attributes and housing conditions.</p>

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