Development of Evaluation Method for Variability of Groundwater Flow Conditions associated with long-term topographic change and climate perturbations

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  • 長期的な地形変化と気候変動による地下水流動状態の変動性評価手法の構築
  • チョウキテキ ナ チケイ ヘンカ ト キコウ ヘンドウ ニ ヨル チカ ミズリュウドウ ジョウタイ ノ ヘンドウセイ ヒョウカ シュホウ ノ コウチク

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Abstract

<p>  A safety assessment of the geological disposal of high-level radioactive waste was performed on a time scale of more than tens of thousands of years after disposal facility closure. Accordingly, it was necessary to establish techniques to evaluate the long-term variability in groundwater flow conditions such as groundwater velocity and groundwater travel time under the influence of long-term geological phenomena. This study focused on topographic changes associated with uplift and denudation, as well as climate perturbations. A method was then developed to assess the long-term variability of groundwater flow conditions using the coefficient of variation based on simulated steady-state groundwater flow conditions. The spatial distribution in areas with relatively long residence times, which are not significantly influenced by long-term topographic change or changes in the recharge rate over the past one million years, were estimated through a case study of the Tono area, Central Japan. By applying this evaluation method, it was possible to identify a local area with a low degree of quantitative and spatial variability in groundwater flow conditions associated with regional topographic changes and climate perturbations. Furthermore, based on the results of this case study, the use of the proposed extrapolation method to evaluate the long-term variability in future groundwater flow conditions is described, and the future application of the prediction method is discussed.</p>

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