Residential Area Modelling Using Cellular Automata with Estimated Water Resources

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  • Residential Area Modelling Using Cellular Automata with Estimated Water Resources : A Case Study in Darkhan, Mongolia
  • - A Case Study in Darkhan, Mongolia -

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Abstract

<p>  Development and economic growth of cities in Northern Mongolia seriously depend on its national urban planning policy and also the accompanying social infrastructure. In addition, the city expansion might be restricted by water resources, as the area has only 300-400 mm of annual precipitation. In this research, despite of its inherent difficulty thus, development of Darkhan city in Northern Mongolia is simulated using a Cellular Automata Model for better decision-making in planning. The model is modified to accommodate to the locality of the city growth, in which ger that is a typical temporal residence of nomads is introduced as a part of the city. Population growth is assumed to be expressed by a logistic function with coefficients derived originally from an actual statistical record and fluctuated according to dynamically-changing water resources deficiency. The urban growth is regulated by these population dynamics as well as a potential of respective land for development that is given by the distances from a station, roads and a cluster of residence. Calibration is successfully executed and the fractal dimensions of the real urban area and simulated one become 1.56 and 1.60, respectively. The simulated results with several scenarios during 2008-2030 indicate that Darkhan might develop with fluctuation and attain to a certain magnitude, only if water demand increases gradually. Otherwise, Darkhan city, especially ger area might shrink due to water resources deficiency.</p>

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