Effect Evaluation for Victims due to the Complex Disaster of Seismic Shaking and Tsunamis Considering Aging Society with Depopulation

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Other Title
  • 少子高齢化現象が地震津波複合災害の人的被害に与える影響評価
  • - The Limits of Self-help, Mutual Help and Public Assistance against Disasters -
  • ～自助・共助・公助による減災対策効果の限界～

Abstract

<p>In this study, we discuss the effects of earthquake-induced compound disasters that have not been considered so far. That is, considering the victims trapped in the damaged house where the evacuation behavior cannot be performed due to indoor scattering and the collapse of houses, we proposed the human damage evaluation formula on compound disaster of earthquakes and tsunamis. In addition, damage evaluation was performed using this formula in Kushiro City, Hokkaido, and even if evacuation started simultaneously with the occurrence of an earthquake, a scenario was revealed in which approximately 20,000 residents would die from the tsunami due to trapped-in debris and other factors. Furthermore, we aimed to propose an example of a safer urban form as a fundamental disaster prevention for Kushiro City based on the social phenomenon of declining birthrate and aging. On the basis of the result on the future population prediction applying the cohort model, we estimated the mitigation effect on the self-help by residents, the mutual-help by neighbors, and the public assistance by the local government, and we considered the ideal way of the disaster mitigation strategy which should be in the future.</p>

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